Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T at the end of October 2026?

The rules, in plain English

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's private market valuation from the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market for the last trading day of October 2026. If the value falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET the next calendar day. If NPM hasn't published data for the last trading day of October 2026 by 1:00 PM ET the day after, the market may stay open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day after the last trading day of October 2026. If no data is released by then, the market resolves using available data. If NPM stops publishing data before the end of October 2026, the market will resolve using the last NPM data published before coverage stopped, plus any public market capitalization data after an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of October 2026, the market will use the company's public market capitalization on the last trading day of October 2026. Public market capitalization will be calculated using the final official regular-hours closing prices on the company's primary exchange for the last trading day of October 2026, multiplied by total shares outstanding at that time. If needed to capture total market capitalization rather than one stock class, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings say otherwise. Outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures like SEC filings. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise stops existing as an independent entity before the end of October 2026, only NPM valuations and public market capitalizations achieved before the transaction completes will be considered. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered. The resolution source is NPM data published at the specified URL. For any period after an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, the resolution source will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

What the rules leave open

• What happens if no data is available by the third business day deadline and the market resolves using 'available data' - which data source is used and from what date?source

  closest the rules come: “If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.” · market rules ↗
• Whether the boundary rule (exact boundary resolves to higher bracket) applies to the $1.25T lower bound, the $1.50T upper bound, or bothsource

  closest the rules come: “If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.” · market rules ↗
• What constitutes 'clearly erroneous data' that would allow NPM revisions to be consideredsource

  closest the rules come: “Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.” · market rules ↗