Will DF win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?
The catch
Only seats won by the party named "DF" count, not votes or coalitions.
“This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
DF wins the second-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives election on October 4, 2026.
“This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before July 31, 2027
“If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: results definitively known
“If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".” — market rules ↗Decided by: Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina
“This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Seats won by coalitions that include DF but are not solely DF
“This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.” — market rules ↗- DF wins the most seats (first place, not second)our reading
- DF wins third-most seatsour reading
- DF is part of a coalition that wins second-most seats but DF itself does notour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
General elections for the House of Representatives of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled for October 4, 2026. This market resolves to the party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in that election. If results are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other". Parties are ranked first by seats won. Ties are broken by total valid votes (higher is better), then by alphabetical order of party names. The market resolves to whichever party finishes second after this ranking. Resolution is based solely on seats won by the named party. Resolution is based on consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguous, resolution is based solely on results from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
What the rules leave open
- What "DF" stands for or which specific party it refers to
Whether DF must run as a standalone party or can run in coalition
closest the rules come: “This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.” — market rules ↗