Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,500 by end of December?
The catch
Only the official CME settlement price counts, not intraday highs or last traded prices.
“Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The official CME settlement price for the Active Month Gold futures reaches $4,500 or higher.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: CME publishes settlement price at or above $4,500
“This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.” · market rules ↗Decided by: CME Group website
“The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices
“Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.” · market rules ↗Price action before market creation
“Price action before this market's creation will not be considered.” · market rules ↗Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures)
“Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.” · market rules ↗Later corrections or updates to settlement prices
“This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.” · market rules ↗
Watch out
WATCHOne publication decides the outcome
“The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month Gold futures reaches or exceeds $4,500 on any trading day between when the market was created and the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise it resolves to No. Price action before the market was created does not count. The Active Month is the nearest CME delivery-cycle month (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. It changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date. Only the official settlement price published by CME Group counts. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. The settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology varies by commodity and contract. Only days when CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month are included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. The market resolves based on the settlement price as it first appears on the CME settlement page for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source is the CME Group website, specifically the daily Settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures.
What the rules leave open
The exact date of market creation is not specified in the documents
closest the rules come: “Price action before this market's creation will not be considered.” · market rules ↗