Will Greg Abbott announce a presidential run before 2028?
The catch
Only an announcement is required; actually filing nomination papers is not necessary.
“An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Greg Abbott officially announces he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 election.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2028
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: official announcement
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Decided by: official statements by the listed individual
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Conditional statements do not count
“Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.” — market rules ↗Statements that are clearly sarcastic do not count
“Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.” — market rules ↗Statements made in jest do not count
“Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.” — market rules ↗Statements immediately clarified as not being genuine do not count
“Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.” — market rules ↗
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Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if Greg Abbott officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. An announcement by Greg Abbott is enough to trigger a Yes resolution, regardless of whether he actually files nomination papers to run, or whether he files them in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements by Greg Abbott (for example, via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What the rules leave open
What constitutes an 'official' statement by Greg Abbott - does it require a formal press conference or would a tweet suffice?
closest the rules come: “The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.” — market rules ↗What level of explicitness is required for the announcement to be 'explicit and unambiguous'?
closest the rules come: “A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous.” — market rules ↗