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Polymarket· world· open· settles 2026-10-04

Will HDZ BiH win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 22¢

The catch

  • Only the named party HDZ BiH counts; any other party finishing second resolves to 'Other'.
    “This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.” — market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • HDZ BiH wins the second-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives election on October 4, 2026.
    “This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.” — market rules ↗
  • Has to happen before July 31, 2027
    “If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".” — market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: results definitively known
    “If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".” — market rules ↗
  • Decided by: consensus of credible reporting, Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina
    “This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).” — market rules ↗

Does not count

  • Any party other than HDZ BiH finishing second
    “This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.” — market rules ↗
  • HDZ BiH finishes third or lower but wins many seatsour reading
  • Another party finishes second and HDZ BiH finishes firstour reading
  • HDZ BiH ties for second place on seats but loses the tiebreaker on vote totalsour reading

Watch out

  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

General elections for the House of Representatives of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled for October 4, 2026. This market resolves to the party that wins the second-most seats in the House of Representatives from this election. If results are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other". Parties are ranked first by seats won. Ties are broken by total valid votes (higher is better). If still tied, alphabetical order of party names decides. The market resolves to whichever party finishes second after this ranking. Resolution is based only on seats won by the named party. Resolution uses a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguous, it uses results from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

What the rules leave open

  • Whether HDZ BiH refers to a specific party entity or could include coalitions involving HDZ BiH
    closest the rules come: “This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.” — market rules ↗