Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $10B and $11B at market close on IPO day?
The catch
Market cap must include all share classes with conversion ratios, not just the publicly traded class.
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Holtec Nuclear's market cap must be between $10B and $11B at closing price on IPO day.
“This market will resolve based on Holtec Nuclear's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before November 1, 2026
“If no such IPO occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before November 2026".” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: official closing price on first day of trading
“The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗Decided by: official company filings, SEC filings, primary exchange's official listing page
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Stock-class-specific market capitalization (only the publicly traded class) does not count if other share classes exist
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗- Market cap is between $10B and $11B based only on the publicly traded share class, but total market cap including all classes is outside this rangeour reading
- Market cap is exactly $10B or exactly $11B and trader is unsure which bracket it falls intoour reading
- IPO occurs but is postponed or delayed beyond October 31, 2026our reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on Holtec Nuclear's market cap at the closing price on its first trading day. The IPO is scheduled to price on September 17 (ET) as of market creation. If no IPO happens by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO before November 2026". Market cap is the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares in its pricing currency. It's calculated as total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If needed to capture total market cap (not just one stock class), the calculation includes all outstanding share classes and applies any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Shares without conversion rights are counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings say otherwise. Outstanding shares come from official company filings or disclosures (like SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day comes from the primary exchange's official listing page. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, this market resolves to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source is official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. Market cap is determined by calculating total outstanding shares times closing price from the first trading day. If trading is interrupted on the first day (like a circuit breaker or half-day), the market resolves using the official closing price of that abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published, the market resolves using the next trading day's official closing price, treating that day as the first trading day for this market.
What the rules leave open
Whether the $10B-$11B range is inclusive or exclusive at the boundaries
closest the rules come: “If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” · market rules ↗What happens if the IPO is scheduled but then cancelled or withdrawn before October 31, 2026
closest the rules come: “If no such IPO occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before November 2026".” · market rules ↗Which timezone applies to the first day of trading if the IPO occurs on a different exchange in a different timezone
closest the rules come: “As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on September 17 (ET).” · market rules ↗