Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $11B and $12B at market close on IPO day?
The catch
Market cap must include all share classes with conversion ratios, not just the publicly traded class.
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Holtec Nuclear's market cap must be between $11B and $12B at the closing price on its first trading day.
“This market will resolve based on Holtec Nuclear's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before November 1, 2026
“If no such IPO occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before November 2026".” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: closing price on first day of trading
“This market will resolve based on Holtec Nuclear's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Decided by: official company filings, primary exchange's official listing page
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Market cap calculated using only one share class when multiple classes exist
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗- Market cap is between $11B and $12B using only the publicly traded share class, but total market cap including all classes falls outside this rangeour reading
- Market cap is exactly $11B or exactly $12B (boundary values)our reading
- IPO occurs but first trading day is after October 31, 2026our reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If no such IPO occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before November 2026".” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on Holtec Nuclear's market cap at the closing price on its first trading day. The IPO is scheduled to price on September 17 (ET) as of market creation. If no IPO happens by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO before November 2026". Market cap is the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares in its pricing currency. It is calculated as total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If needed to capture total market cap rather than just one share class, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Shares without conversion rights will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings say otherwise. Outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (like SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, this market resolves to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source is official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. Market cap will be determined by calculating using total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first trading day. If trading is interrupted on the first day (like a circuit breaker or half-day), the market resolves according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published, the market resolves according to the next trading day with an official closing price, treating that day as the first trading day.
What the rules leave open
What happens if the market cap is exactly $11B or exactly $12B (at the boundaries)?
closest the rules come: “If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” · market rules ↗Whether the scheduled IPO date of September 17 is binding or just informational
closest the rules come: “As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on September 17 (ET).” · market rules ↗