Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day?
The catch
Market cap must include all share classes with conversion ratios, not just the publicly traded class.
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Holtec Nuclear's market cap must be between $9B and $10B at closing price on IPO day.
“This market will resolve based on Holtec Nuclear's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before November 1, 2026
“If no such IPO occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before November 2026".” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: official closing price on first day of trading
“The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗Decided by: official company filings, SEC filings, primary exchange's official listing page
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Market cap calculated using only one share class when multiple classes exist
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗- Market cap between $9B and $10B using only the publicly traded share class, but total market cap including all classes falls outside this rangeour reading
- Market cap reaches $9B-$10B on a later trading day but not on the first day of tradingour reading
- IPO prices on September 17 but first trading day is later, and market cap is in range on pricing day but not trading dayour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on Holtec Nuclear's market cap at the closing price on its first trading day. The IPO is scheduled to price on September 17 (ET) as of market creation. If no IPO happens by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO before November 2026". Market cap is the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares in its pricing currency. It is calculated as total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If needed to capture total market cap rather than one class's market cap, the calculation includes all outstanding share classes and applies any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Shares with no conversion right are counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings say otherwise. Outstanding shares come from official company filings or disclosures (like SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day comes from the primary exchange's official listing page. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, this market resolves to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source is official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. Market cap is determined by calculating total outstanding shares times closing price from the first trading day. If trading is interrupted on the first day (like a circuit breaker or half-day), the market resolves using the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published, the market resolves using the next trading day with an official closing price, treating that day as the first trading day.
What the rules leave open
Whether the scheduled September 17 pricing date is ET or another timezone
closest the rules come: “As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on September 17 (ET).” · market rules ↗What happens if the company has share classes with no conversion right and no explicit discount specified in filings
closest the rules come: “Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.” · market rules ↗Which year the September 17 IPO pricing date refers to
closest the rules come: “As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on September 17 (ET).” · market rules ↗