Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be less than $9B at market close on IPO day?
The catch
Market cap must include all share classes with conversion ratios, not just the publicly traded class.
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Holtec Nuclear's market cap must be less than $9 billion at the closing price on its IPO day.
“This market will resolve based on Holtec Nuclear's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before November 1, 2026
“If no such IPO occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before November 2026".” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: official closing price on first day of trading
“The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗Decided by: official company filings, SEC filings, primary exchange's official listing page
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Stock-class-specific market capitalization (only the publicly traded class) does not count if other share classes exist
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗- Market cap of only the publicly traded share class is below $9B, but total market cap including all share classes is above $9Bour reading
- Intraday trading price suggests market cap below $9B, but official closing price puts it aboveour reading
- IPO prices on September 17 but first trading day is later, and trader uses wrong day's closing priceour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If no such IPO occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before November 2026".” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on Holtec Nuclear's market cap at the closing price on its first trading day. The IPO is scheduled to price on September 17 (ET). If no IPO happens by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO before November 2026". Market cap is the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares in its pricing currency. It's calculated as total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If needed to capture total market cap (not just one stock class), the calculation includes all outstanding share classes and applies any conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Shares with no conversion right are counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless filings say otherwise. Outstanding shares come from official company filings or disclosures (like SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day comes from the primary exchange's official listing page. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, this market resolves to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source is official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. Market cap is determined by calculating total outstanding shares times closing price from the first trading day. If trading is interrupted on the first day (like a circuit breaker or half-day), the market resolves using the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published, the market resolves using the next trading day with an official closing price, treating that as the first trading day.
What the rules leave open
What constitutes the 'first day of trading' if the IPO prices on one day but trading begins on a different day
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve based on Holtec Nuclear's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Which exchange counts as the 'primary exchange' if Holtec lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously
closest the rules come: “The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗How to handle shares with no conversion right and no explicit discount specified in filings
closest the rules come: “Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.” · market rules ↗