Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by September 15, 2026?

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves to Yes if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and September 15, 2026, Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, it resolves to No. A qualifying military action is an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not count as qualifying military actions: - Surface-to-air missile strikes - Small-arms fire - Ground incursions - Cyber operations - Naval gunfire and artillery fire - Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems) - Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes - Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed Intercepted munitions still count as qualifying military action if they meet the criteria during the timeframe. Whether the munitions were intercepted, where they landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action is considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation based on a consensus of information from the resolution sources or (ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market are official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and a consensus of credible reporting.

What the rules leave open

• What constitutes 'minor' versus qualifying surface-to-surface strikes beyond the specific examples givensource

  closest the rules come: “Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;” · market rules ↗
• Whether strikes at UAE territorial waters (but not internal waters) countsource

  closest the rules come: “A military action will be considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters.” · market rules ↗
• What level of evidence constitutes 'confirmation' that an attack originated from Iranian territorysource

  closest the rules come: “Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market.” · market rules ↗
• Whether attacks launched from Iranian territory by non-Iranian forces countsource

  closest the rules come: “Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market.” · market rules ↗