Will Israel make Eric Adams a citizen?
The catch
Honorary citizenship counts as making Eric Adams a citizen.
“Honorary citizenship will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Israel makes Eric Adams a citizen.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country makes Eric Adams a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.” — market rules ↗The other party has to be Eric Adams
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country makes Eric Adams a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2027
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country makes Eric Adams a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.” — market rules ↗Decided by: representatives of the listed country, Eric Adams, consensus of credible reporting
“This market will resolve according to statements from representatives of the listed country or Eric Adams. This market may also resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Statements from Eric Adams indicating intent to seek citizenship
“Statements from Eric Adams indicating intent to seek citizenship from the listed country will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".” — market rules ↗Statements from the listed country or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Eric Adams a citizen
“Statements from the listed country or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Eric Adams a citizen will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution.” — market rules ↗- Israel announces it will grant Eric Adams citizenship but has not yet formally done so by the deadlineour reading
- Eric Adams applies for Israeli citizenship but it is not granted by the deadlineour reading
Watch out
- WATCHRules don't say what counts as done
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
NOTEA specific counterparty is named
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country makes Eric Adams a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.” — market rules ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if Israel makes Eric Adams a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Statements from Eric Adams saying he intends to seek citizenship from Israel will not be enough to resolve this market to Yes. Statements from Israel or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Eric Adams a citizen will not be enough to qualify this market towards a Yes resolution. Only Israel actually making Eric Adams a citizen will qualify for a Yes resolution. Honorary citizenship will qualify toward a Yes resolution. This market will resolve according to statements from representatives of Israel or Eric Adams. This market may also resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
What the rules leave open
What specific act or documentation constitutes 'making' someone a citizen (e.g., signing a decree, issuing a certificate, formal announcement)
closest the rules come: “Only the listed country's actually making Eric Adams a citizen will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.” — market rules ↗- Whether dual citizenship or renunciation of US citizenship is required