Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2028?
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 28¢
The catch
The announcement only needs to be made, not followed by actual filing or candidacy.
“An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Ivanka Trump officially announces she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 election.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2028
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: official announcement made
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Decided by: official statements by the listed individual
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Conditional statements do not count
“Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.” — market rules ↗Sarcastic statements do not count
“Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.” — market rules ↗Statements made in jest do not count
“Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.” — market rules ↗Statements immediately clarified as not genuine do not count
“Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.” — market rules ↗
Watch out
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Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if Ivanka Trump officially announces she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves to No. An announcement alone is enough for Yes, even if she never files paperwork or actually runs. The announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, sarcasm, jokes, or statements immediately clarified as not genuine do not count. The primary source is official statements by Ivanka Trump (speeches, social media, etc.), but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What the rules leave open
What constitutes 'explicit and unambiguous' is not defined with specific criteria
closest the rules come: “A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous.” — market rules ↗What qualifies as an 'official statement' is not precisely defined beyond examples
closest the rules come: “The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.” — market rules ↗How long after a statement must a clarification occur to be considered 'immediate'
closest the rules come: “Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.” — market rules ↗