Will Javier Milei appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 42¢
The catch
Clips, teasers, and promotional material don't count—only a full episode.
“Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
A new full episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring Javier Milei must be publicly released.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2027
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: full episode published and available to the general public
“"Released" means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show's official feed).” — market rules ↗Decided by: official UpOnly podcast channels, consensus of credible public reporting
“The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count
“Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution.” — market rules ↗- A teaser or preview clip featuring Milei is released but not the full episodeour reading
- Milei appears on a different podcast or showour reading
- The episode is recorded but not publicly released by the deadlineour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if a new full episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring Javier Milei is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Released means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform like YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show's official feed. Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels or a consensus of credible public reporting.
What the rules leave open
What qualifies as 'featuring' the guest—must they be the primary guest, or does any appearance count?
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗How long must the episode be to count as a 'full episode' versus a clip?
closest the rules come: “"Released" means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show's official feed).” — market rules ↗If the episode is initially paywalled or members-only, does it count as 'available to the general public'?
closest the rules come: “"Released" means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show's official feed).” — market rules ↗