Will JD Vance say "Iran" 3+ times during RNC Convention?
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 25¢
The catch
Only mentions during the September 9, 2026 RNC Convention appearance count, not other speeches.
“This market is explicitly about JD Vance's remarks at the RNC Convention scheduled for September 9, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
JD Vance says "Iran" 3 or more times during his RNC Convention remarks on September 9, 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the specified appearance.” — market rules ↗Decided at the event on September 9, 2026
“JD Vance is scheduled to give remarks at the RNC Convention on September 9, 2026 at 10 AM ET.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: When JD Vance says the term during his RNC Convention remarks
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the specified appearance.” — market rules ↗Decided by: audio/video of the event
“The resolution source will be audio/video of the event.” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Speeches, events, or comments outside the September 9, 2026 RNC Convention appearance do not count
“Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.” — market rules ↗- JD Vance says "Iran" 3+ times at a different RNC event on a different dateour reading
- JD Vance says "Iran" 3+ times in interviews or speeches on September 9 but outside the RNC Conventionour reading
- JD Vance says "Iran" only 2 times during the RNC Convention appearanceour reading
Watch out
WATCHOne publication decides the outcome
“The resolution source will be audio/video of the event.” — market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
JD Vance is scheduled to speak at the RNC Convention on September 9, 2026 at 10 AM ET. This market resolves to Yes if JD Vance says the listed term during that appearance. Otherwise it resolves to No. This market is only about JD Vance's remarks at the RNC Convention scheduled for September 9, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments outside the named scheduled event do not count. If the event is cancelled or not available by September 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" resolves to Yes and all other brackets resolve to No. The resolution source is audio/video of the event. For full rules, see the linked PDF.
What the rules leave open
Whether variations like "Iranian", "Iranians", or "Iran's" count as saying "Iran"
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the specified appearance.” — market rules ↗Whether the count includes mentions in quotes from others or only JD Vance's own words
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the specified appearance.” — market rules ↗What happens if the event is postponed to a later date rather than cancelled
closest the rules come: “If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not available by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".” — market rules ↗