Will Kristi Noem announce a presidential run before 2028?
The catch
Only an announcement is required; actually filing nomination papers is not necessary.
“An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Kristi Noem officially announces she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 election.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2028
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: official announcement
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Decided by: official statements by the listed individual, consensus of credible reporting
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Conditional statements do not count
“Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.” — market rules ↗Sarcastic statements do not count
“Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.” — market rules ↗Statements made in jest do not count
“Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.” — market rules ↗Statements immediately clarified as not genuine do not count
“Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.” — market rules ↗
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Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if Kristi Noem officially announces she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves to No. An announcement by Kristi Noem is enough to trigger a Yes resolution, even if she never files nomination papers or actually runs. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, sarcastic statements, statements made in jest, or statements immediately clarified as not genuine do not count. The primary resolution source is official statements by Kristi Noem (through speech, social media, etc.), but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What the rules leave open
What qualifies as 'explicit and unambiguous' for an announcement is not defined with specific criteria
closest the rules come: “A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous.” — market rules ↗Whether an announcement through a surrogate or campaign representative counts as an 'official statement by the listed individual'
closest the rules come: “The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.” — market rules ↗