Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 52¢
The catch
If OpenAI is acquired by a public company, the market resolves No.
“If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering on any recognized stock exchange.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before June 30, 2027
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.” — market rules ↗Decided by: official company announcements, credible news sources
“The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.” — market rules ↗
Does not count
OpenAI being acquired by a company that is already public
“If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."” — market rules ↗- OpenAI announces plans for an IPO but does not complete it by the deadlineour reading
- OpenAI files for an IPO but the offering does not occur by June 30, 2027our reading
- OpenAI is acquired by a public company (which someone might think counts as going public)our reading
Watch out
- WATCHRules don't say what counts as done
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves Yes if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering by June 30, 2027 ET, confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise it resolves No. An IPO means the first sale of stock by the company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by a company that is already public, this market immediately resolves No. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.
What the rules leave open
Whether a SPAC merger or direct listing counts as an IPO
closest the rules come: “The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.” — market rules ↗What constitutes 'completion' of an IPO (filing date, pricing date, first trading day, or settlement)
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.” — market rules ↗What qualifies as a 'recognized stock exchange'
closest the rules come: “The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.” — market rules ↗