Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 21?
The catch
Only discretionary, non-scheduled resets count; normal scheduled resets and individual user resets don't qualify.
“Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
OpenAI resets Codex weekly usage limits for paid subscription users ahead of the normal schedule.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI resets Codex weekly usage limits by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before September 22, 2025
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI resets Codex weekly usage limits by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: Announced or initiated
“Only qualifying resets announced or initiated after the creation of this market will be considered.” — market rules ↗Decided by: @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, in-product notices, consensus of credible reporting
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Normal scheduled resets
“Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify.” — market rules ↗Resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts
“Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify.” — market rules ↗Temporary limit increases
“Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify.” — market rules ↗Additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances
“Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify.” — market rules ↗
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to "Yes" if OpenAI resets Codex weekly usage limits by September 21 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to "No". A qualifying reset must be a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that happens ahead of the normal reset schedule. It must either zero or refill the weekly usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grant those users a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset (regardless of when users redeem it). The reset still qualifies even if certain models, plans, or some users aren't covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences. Normal scheduled resets don't qualify. Resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts don't qualify. Temporary limit increases don't qualify. Additional usage or credits that don't refill existing allowances don't qualify. Changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps don't qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers don't qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated after this market was created will be considered. An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will qualify if published within the market's timeframe, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes. The primary resolution source is official communications from OpenAI, including X posts by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What the rules leave open
What constitutes the 'normal reset schedule' that a qualifying reset must precede
closest the rules come: “A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it.” — market rules ↗Whether ChatGPT Work subscription resets alone (without Codex) would qualify
closest the rules come: “A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it.” — market rules ↗Which OpenAI employees beyond those named are 'authorized to announce Codex usage changes'
closest the rules come: “Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945.” — market rules ↗