Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
The catch
Votes from joint lists or merged parties count, not just Religious Zionist Party–Zehut alone.
“If Religious Zionist Party–Zehut contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Religious Zionist Party–Zehut merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Religious Zionist Party–Zehut wins between 3.25% and 4% of valid votes in the 2026 Israeli Knesset elections.
“This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Religious Zionist Party–Zehut party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before November 1, 2027
“If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: official election results published
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗Decided by: consensus of credible reporting, Central Elections Committee of Israel
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗
Does not count
- Religious Zionist Party–Zehut wins 3.25-4% but as part of a joint list that wins more than 4% totalour reading
- Religious Zionist Party–Zehut wins 3.24% (just below the bracket)our reading
- Religious Zionist Party–Zehut wins 4.01% (just above the bracket)our reading
- Religious Zionist Party–Zehut merges with another party and the merged entity wins 3.25-4% but the party name changes completelyour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” — market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
Legislative elections are expected in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market resolves based on the percentage of the national vote won by Religious Zionist Party–Zehut in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage is calculated as valid votes for Religious Zionist Party–Zehut divided by total valid votes cast. Votes count whether or not the party passes the electoral threshold and wins seats. If Religious Zionist Party–Zehut runs as part of a joint list with other parties, all votes for the joint list count. If Religious Zionist Party–Zehut merges with another party before the election, all votes for the merged party or any joint list it runs on count. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the market resolves to the higher bracket. If results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket. The market resolves based on election results from a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves based solely on official results from the Central Elections Committee of Israel.
What the rules leave open
Whether votes count if Religious Zionist Party–Zehut splits into multiple parties before the election.
closest the rules come: “If Religious Zionist Party–Zehut merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗Whether the bracket 3.25-4% is inclusive or exclusive at the upper bound (4%).
closest the rules come: “If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” — market rules ↗