Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 4-5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
The catch
Votes from joint lists or merged parties count even if Religious Zionist Party–Zehut changes form.
“If Religious Zionist Party–Zehut contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Religious Zionist Party–Zehut merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Religious Zionist Party–Zehut wins 4-5% of valid votes in the 2026 Israeli Knesset elections.
“This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Religious Zionist Party–Zehut party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before November 1, 2027
“If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: official election results published
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗Decided by: consensus of credible reporting, Central Elections Committee of Israel
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗
Does not count
- Religious Zionist Party–Zehut wins 3.9% of the vote (just below the 4% threshold)our reading
- Religious Zionist Party–Zehut wins 5.1% of the vote (just above the 5% threshold)our reading
- Religious Zionist Party–Zehut wins exactly 4% or 5% (resolves to higher bracket, not this one)our reading
- Religious Zionist Party–Zehut fails to pass the electoral threshold but wins 4-5% of votes (still counts)our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market resolves based on the percentage of the national vote won by Religious Zionist Party–Zehut in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage is calculated as the number of valid votes received by Religious Zionist Party–Zehut divided by the total number of valid votes cast. Votes count whether or not the party passes the electoral threshold and wins seats. If Religious Zionist Party–Zehut runs as part of a joint candidate list with other parties, all votes won by that joint list count. If Religious Zionist Party–Zehut merges with another party before the election, all votes won by the merged party or any joint list it runs on count. If the percentage falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the market resolves to the higher range bracket. If the election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket. The market resolves based on election results from a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel.
What the rules leave open
Whether votes count if Religious Zionist Party–Zehut splits into multiple parties before the election.
closest the rules come: “If Religious Zionist Party–Zehut merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗How to determine which party is Religious Zionist Party–Zehut if the party undergoes significant reorganization or name change without a formal merger.
closest the rules come: “If Religious Zionist Party–Zehut merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗Whether the election date of October 27, 2026 is fixed or if the market still applies if elections are held on a different date.
closest the rules come: “Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.” — market rules ↗