Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
The catch
Only specific ISW map layers count; infiltration areas and claimed territory do not qualify.
“Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2027
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Any part of the train station icon is shaded under a qualifying ISW map layer
“The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.” · market rules ↗Decided by: ISW Ukraine map, DeepStateMap, consensus of credible reporting
“The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Shading under 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas' layer does not count
“Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory” · market rules ↗Shading under 'Claimed Russian Territory' layer does not count
“Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory” · market rules ↗Temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered
“Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.” · market rules ↗Announcement of a negotiated settlement giving Russia de jure control does not qualify without actual control
“However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.” · market rules ↗
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
NOTEAn outside data source decides, with a named backup
“The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.” · market rules ↗
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (coordinates 47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, according to the ISW map. The train station is considered captured if any part of its icon is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. For any ISW map change to count, the shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published. Qualifying layers are: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Non-qualifying layers are: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered. If Russia gains control of the territory through a negotiated settlement, this qualifies for Yes resolution, regardless of ISW map shading. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement giving Russia de jure control does not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map. If unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used. If both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
What the rules leave open
What constitutes 'actual control' in the context of a negotiated settlement
closest the rules come: “If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.” · market rules ↗What defines a 'full ISW daily update cycle' for persistence requirements
closest the rules come: “For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market's resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.” · market rules ↗How to distinguish temporary glitches from legitimate map updates
closest the rules come: “Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.” · market rules ↗