Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
The catch
Only the specific railroad station on Pryvokzalna ploscha counts, not the broader city of Sumy.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Russia captures the Sumy railroad station on Pryvokzalna ploscha as shown on the ISW map.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before April 1, 2027
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: When any part of the train station icon is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map
“The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.” · market rules ↗Decided by: ISW Ukraine map, DeepStateMap, consensus of credible reporting
“The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Shading under 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas' layer does not count
“Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory” · market rules ↗Shading under 'Claimed Russian Territory' layer does not count
“Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory” · market rules ↗Mere announcement of a negotiated settlement giving Russia de jure control does not count
“However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.” · market rules ↗Temporary glitches or errors in the map do not count
“Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.” · market rules ↗
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
NOTEAn outside data source decides, with a named backup
“The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.” · market rules ↗
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if Russia captures the Sumy railroad station on Pryvokzalna ploscha according to the ISW map between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station is considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map by the resolution date. For any change on the ISW map to count, the shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published. Qualifying layers are: Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain and Assessed Russian Advances. Non-qualifying layers are: Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas and Claimed Russian Territory. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control does not affect resolution. If Russia gains control of the territory through a negotiated settlement, this qualifies for Yes resolution regardless of ISW map shading. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement giving Russia de jure control does not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map. If unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used. If both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
What the rules leave open
What constitutes 'actual control' being established in a negotiated settlement scenario
closest the rules come: “If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.” · market rules ↗What happens if ISW skips multiple consecutive days
closest the rules come: “If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.” · market rules ↗