Sharpbook
Polymarket· geopolitics· open· settles 2027-01-01

Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 16¢

The catch

  • Russia must hold territory through a full ISW update cycle; temporary captures don't count.
    “For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market's resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.” · market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • Russia captures any part of Kramatorsk territory and holds it through one full ISW update cycle.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kramatorsk (48.73714435420954° N, 37.589106045927714° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/TVY1bAwoc98W2L949) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.” · market rules ↗
  • Has to happen before January 1, 2027
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kramatorsk (48.73714435420954° N, 37.589106045927714° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/TVY1bAwoc98W2L949) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.” · market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: Territory shaded under qualifying ISW map layer persisting through next full update cycle
    “For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market's resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.” · market rules ↗
  • Decided by: ISW Ukraine map, DeepStateMap, consensus of credible reporting
    “The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.” · market rules ↗

Does not count

  • Territory shaded under 'Claimed Russian Territory' layer does not count
    “Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory” · market rules ↗
  • Temporary glitches or errors in the map do not count
    “Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.” · market rules ↗
  • Announcement of negotiated settlement giving de jure control without actual control does not count
    “However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.” · market rules ↗
  • Russia captures Kramatorsk but loses it before the next ISW update cycle completesour reading

Watch out

  • HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
    “Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.” · market rules ↗
  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
  • NOTEAn outside data source decides, with a named backup
    “The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.” · market rules ↗

Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves Yes if Russia captures any part of Kramatorsk territory (coordinates 48.73714435420954° N, 37.589106045927714° E) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, according to the ISW map. Territory is considered captured if any part is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map by the resolution date. The boundaries of Kramatorsk are those shown under the "Ukrainian Settlements" layer on the ISW map. For any ISW map change to count, the shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized update is published. Qualifying layers are: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Non-qualifying layers: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control does not affect resolution. If Russia gains control through a negotiated settlement, this qualifies for Yes, regardless of ISW map shading. However, mere announcement of a settlement giving de jure control does not qualify - actual control must be established. The primary resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map. If unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used. If both are permanently unavailable, consensus of credible reporting may be used. Temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

What the rules leave open

  • What constitutes 'actual control' for negotiated settlement scenarios beyond ISW map shading
    closest the rules come: “If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.” · market rules ↗
  • What happens if ISW skips multiple consecutive days
    closest the rules come: “If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.” · market rules ↗