Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?
The catch
Only captures that persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle count.
“For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market's resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Russia captures any territory of the city of Zaporizhia.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of the city of Zaporizhia (47.8423587068344° N, 35.15074278438932° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/Gezpp2b4SDnefJ5s9) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2027
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of the city of Zaporizhia (47.8423587068344° N, 35.15074278438932° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/Gezpp2b4SDnefJ5s9) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Territory shaded under qualifying ISW map layer
“Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.” · market rules ↗Decided by: ISW Ukraine map, DeepStateMap, consensus of credible reporting
“The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Shading under the 'Claimed Russian Territory' layer does not count.
“Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory” · market rules ↗Temporary glitches or errors in the map do not count.
“Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.” · market rules ↗Announcement of a negotiated settlement giving Russia de jure control does not count without actual control.
“However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.” · market rules ↗- Russia captures territory but it doesn't persist through the next full ISW daily update cycleour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
NOTEAn outside data source decides, with a named backup
“The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.” · market rules ↗
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if Russia captures any territory of the city of Zaporizhia according to the ISW map between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Territory is considered captured if any part of it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map by the resolution date. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the "Ukrainian Settlements" layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to count, the shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published. Shading under these layers qualifies: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under this layer does not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control does not matter. If Russia gains control through a negotiated settlement, this qualifies for Yes, regardless of ISW map shading. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement giving Russia de jure control does not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map. If unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used. If both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
What the rules leave open
What constitutes 'actual control' for a negotiated settlement if it is not reflected on the ISW map.
closest the rules come: “If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.” · market rules ↗How to determine if ISW has 'skipped a day' versus simply not updated yet.
closest the rules come: “If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.” · market rules ↗