Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?
The catch
Market resolves based on market cap value, not whether an IPO occurs.
“This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
SB Energy does not complete an initial public offering before January 2027.
“If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027".” · market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2027
“If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027".” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Official closing price published on first trading day
“The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗Decided by: official company filings, primary exchange's official listing page, SEC filings
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
- SB Energy announces IPO plans but does not complete trading by deadlineour reading
- SB Energy files for IPO but trading begins in January 2027our reading
- SB Energy completes a direct listing or SPAC merger instead of traditional IPOour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If SB Energy does not IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO before January 2027". Market capitalization is the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares in its pricing currency. It is calculated as total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If needed to capture total market cap rather than one stock class, the calculation includes all outstanding share classes and applies any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Shares without conversion rights are counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings say otherwise. Outstanding shares are determined from official company filings or disclosures (like SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day comes from the primary exchange's official listing page. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source is official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. Market cap is determined by calculating total outstanding shares times closing price from the first day of trading. If trading is interrupted on the first day (like a circuit breaker or half-day), the market resolves using the official closing price of that abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published, the market uses the next trading day with a published official closing price, treating that as the first day of trading.
What the rules leave open
Whether a direct listing, SPAC merger, or other non-traditional public offering counts as an IPO
closest the rules come: “If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027".” · market rules ↗Which timezone applies to the first trading day closing price if the primary exchange is not in ET
closest the rules come: “The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗What constitutes the 'first day of trading' if there are pre-IPO trading sessions or conditional trading
closest the rules come: “The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗