Will SB Energy's market cap be at least $125B at market close on IPO day?
The catch
Market resolves to 'No IPO before January 2027' if no IPO occurs by deadline.
“If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027".” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
SB Energy's market capitalization reaches at least $125 billion at the closing price on its IPO day.
“This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2027
“If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027".” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: closing price on first day of trading
“This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Decided by: official company filings, primary exchange's official listing page
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Stock-class-specific market capitalization (must include all outstanding share classes)
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗- SB Energy reaches $125B market cap after the first day of trading but not at the closing price on IPO dayour reading
- SB Energy's publicly traded class alone is worth $125B but total market cap including all share classes is below $125Bour reading
- SB Energy IPOs on January 1, 2027 or later with market cap above $125Bour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO happens by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO before January 2027". Market capitalization is the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If needed to capture the company's total market capitalization (not just one stock class), the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings say otherwise. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (like SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, this market resolves to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source is official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. Market capitalization will be determined by calculating total outstanding shares times the closing price from the first day of trading. If trading is interrupted on the first day (like a circuit breaker or half-day), the market resolves using the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published, the market resolves using the next trading day's official closing price, treating that day as the first day of trading.
What the rules leave open
Which exchange counts as the 'primary exchange' if SB Energy lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously
closest the rules come: “The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗What happens if SB Energy IPOs but no official closing price is ever published (not just delayed)
closest the rules come: “If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.” · market rules ↗Whether the market resolves to 'No IPO before January 2027' or 'No' if the IPO occurs but market cap is below $125B
closest the rules come: “If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027".” · market rules ↗