Will SB Energy's market cap be between $100B and $125B at market close on IPO day?
The catch
All share classes are included in the calculation, not just the publicly traded class.
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
SB Energy's market capitalization must be between $100B and $125B at the closing price on its IPO day.
“This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2027
“If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027".” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: closing price on the first day of trading
“This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Decided by: official company filings, primary exchange's official listing page
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
- SB Energy IPOs and the publicly traded class alone is valued between $100B-$125B, but total market cap including all share classes falls outside this rangeour reading
- SB Energy's market cap is in the range at some point during the first trading day but not at the official closing priceour reading
- SB Energy IPOs after December 31, 2026 with market cap in the specified rangeour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on SB Energy's total market value at the closing price on its first trading day. If SB Energy doesn't go public by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO before January 2027". Market capitalization is the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares in its pricing currency. It's calculated by multiplying the total number of outstanding shares by the official closing share price on the first trading day. If needed to capture the company's total market cap (not just one stock class), the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Shares without conversion rights will be counted at their stated amount without discount, unless official filings say otherwise. Outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures like SEC filings. The closing share price on the first trading day will come from the primary exchange's official listing page. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, this market resolves to the higher bracket. The primary sources are official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. Market cap will be calculated using total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first trading day. If trading is interrupted on the first day (like a circuit breaker or half-day), the market resolves using the official closing price of that abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published, the market resolves using the next trading day that has an official closing price, treating that day as the first trading day.
What the rules leave open
What happens if the market cap falls exactly on $100B or $125B
closest the rules come: “If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” · market rules ↗Which currency the market cap should be calculated in if SB Energy lists on a non-US exchange
closest the rules come: “Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.” · market rules ↗