Polymarket· finance· open· settles 2027-01-01

Will SB Energy's market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 38¢

The catch

All share classes are included in the calculation, not just the publicly traded class.
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗

Pays out only if

SB Energy's market capitalization must be between $40 billion and $50 billion at the closing price on its IPO day.
“This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗
Has to happen before January 1, 2027
“If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027".” · market rules ↗
Counts as done when: closing price on the first day of trading
“This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗
Decided by: official company filings, primary exchange's official listing page
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗

Does not count

SB Energy IPOs with market cap between $40B-$50B based only on the publicly traded share class, but total market cap including all classes falls outside the rangeour reading
SB Energy's intraday price on IPO day implies a $40B-$50B market cap, but the official closing price puts it outside that rangeour reading
SB Energy IPOs on January 1, 2027 or later with market cap in the target rangeour reading

Watch out

WATCHSome obvious wins don't count

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO happens by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO before January 2027". Market capitalization is the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If needed to capture the company's total market cap rather than just one stock class, the calculation includes all outstanding share classes and applies any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Shares without conversion rights are counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings say otherwise. The number of outstanding shares comes from official company filings or disclosures (like SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day comes from the primary exchange's official listing page. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, this market resolves to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source is official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. Market capitalization is determined by calculating total outstanding shares times the closing price from the first day of trading. If trading is interrupted on the company's first day (like a circuit breaker or half-day), the market resolves using the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published, the market resolves using the next trading day when an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading.

What the rules leave open

What happens if the market cap falls exactly on $40B or $50B
closest the rules come: “If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” · market rules ↗
Which currency is used to determine the $40B-$50B range if SB Energy prices in a non-USD currency
closest the rules come: “Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.” · market rules ↗

Original rules text

Read from the market rules ↗.

This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.

Source ↗

Get the weekly five

The five worst-worded open markets, every Sunday.