Will SB Energy's market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?
The catch
Market cap must include all share classes with conversion ratios, not just the publicly traded class.
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
SB Energy's market capitalization falls between $50 billion and $60 billion at the closing price on its IPO day.
“This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2027
“If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027".” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: official closing price on first trading day
“The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗Decided by: official company filings, primary exchange's official listing page
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
- SB Energy IPOs with market cap between $50B-$60B based only on the publicly traded share class, but total market cap including all share classes falls outside this rangeour reading
- SB Energy's intraday price on IPO day reaches the $50B-$60B range but the official closing price is outside this rangeour reading
- SB Energy IPOs in early 2027 with market cap in the target rangeour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO happens by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO before January 2027". Market capitalization is the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares in its pricing currency. It is calculated as total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If needed to capture the company's total market cap rather than just one stock class, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Shares with no conversion right will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings say otherwise. Outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (like SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, this market resolves to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source is official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. Market cap will be determined by calculating total outstanding shares times the closing price from the first day of trading. If trading is interrupted on the company's first day (like a circuit breaker or half-day), the market resolves according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published, the market resolves according to the next trading day with an official closing price, treating that day as the first day of trading.
What the rules leave open
Which specific company filings (S-1, prospectus, 8-K) will be used to determine outstanding shares
closest the rules come: “The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).” · market rules ↗How to handle shares with no conversion right and no explicit discount specified in filings
closest the rules come: “Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.” · market rules ↗What constitutes the 'primary exchange' if SB Energy lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously
closest the rules come: “The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗