Will SB Energy's market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?
The catch
Market cap must include all share classes with conversion ratios, not just the publicly traded class.
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
SB Energy's market capitalization falls between $70 billion and $80 billion at the closing price on its IPO day.
“This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2027
“If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027".” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: closing price on the first day of trading
“This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Decided by: official company filings, SEC filings, primary exchange's official listing page
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Market capitalization calculated using only one share class when multiple classes exist
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗- SB Energy's market cap is $70.5B when counting only the publicly traded share class, but $82B when all share classes are includedour reading
- SB Energy's market cap is $75B at the opening price on IPO day but closes at $85Bour reading
- SB Energy's market cap is $75B intraday but the official closing price yields $68Bour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO happens by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO before January 2027". Market capitalization is the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares in its pricing currency. It is calculated as total outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If needed to capture the company's total market cap (not just one share class), the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Shares with no conversion right are counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings say otherwise. Outstanding shares are determined from official company filings or disclosures (like SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day is determined from the primary exchange's official listing page. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, this market resolves to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source is official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. Market cap is determined by calculating total outstanding shares times the closing price from the first day of trading. If trading is interrupted on the first day (circuit breaker or half-day), the market resolves using the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published, the market resolves using the next trading day's official closing price, treating that day as the first day of trading.
What the rules leave open
What happens if SB Energy IPOs but then trading is permanently halted before an official closing price is ever published
closest the rules come: “If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.” · market rules ↗Whether the market resolves to a specific outcome if the IPO occurs but market cap is outside the $70B-$80B range
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗How to handle share classes with no conversion right and no explicit discount specified in filings
closest the rules come: “Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.” · market rules ↗