Will SB Energy's market cap be less than $40B at market close on IPO day?
The catch
Market cap must include all share classes with conversion ratios, not just the publicly traded class.
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
SB Energy's market cap must be less than $40 billion at the closing price on its IPO day.
“This market will resolve based on SB Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before January 1, 2027
“If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027".” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: official closing price on first day of trading
“The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗Decided by: official company filings, primary exchange's official listing page, SEC filings
“The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Market cap calculated using only one share class when multiple classes exist
“If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class.” · market rules ↗- SB Energy's publicly traded class has market cap under $40B, but total market cap including all share classes exceeds $40Bour reading
- Market cap is under $40B intraday but closes at or above $40Bour reading
- Market cap is exactly $40B at closeour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on SB Energy's market cap at the closing price on its first trading day. If no IPO happens by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO before January 2027". Market cap is the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares in its pricing currency. It's calculated as total outstanding shares times the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If needed to capture total market cap (not just one share class), the calculation includes all outstanding share classes and applies any conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Shares with no conversion right are counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings say otherwise. Outstanding shares come from official company filings or disclosures (like SEC filings). Closing share price on first trading day comes from the primary exchange's official listing page. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, this market resolves to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source is official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. Market cap is determined by calculating total outstanding shares times closing price from the first trading day. If trading is interrupted on the company's first day (circuit breaker or half-day), the market resolves using the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no official closing price is published, the market resolves using the next trading day's official closing price, treating that day as the first trading day for this market.
What the rules leave open
Which currency's $40B threshold applies if SB Energy IPOs in a non-USD currency
closest the rules come: “Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.” · market rules ↗How to value share classes with no conversion right and no explicit discount specified in filings
closest the rules come: “Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.” · market rules ↗What constitutes the 'primary exchange' if SB Energy lists on multiple exchanges simultaneously
closest the rules come: “The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page.” · market rules ↗