Will SDA win the second most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?
The catch
Only seats won by the party named SDA count, not coalition seats or vote share.
“This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
SDA wins the second-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives election on October 4, 2026.
“This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before July 31, 2027
“If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: results definitively known
“If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".” — market rules ↗Decided by: consensus of credible reporting, Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina
“This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Seats won by other parties, even if tied with SDA
“This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.” — market rules ↗- SDA wins the most seats (first place instead of second)our reading
- SDA wins third place but has the second-highest vote totalour reading
- A coalition including SDA wins second place but SDA individually does notour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
General elections for the House of Representatives of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled for October 4, 2026. This market resolves to the party that wins the second-most seats in the House of Representatives. If results are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other". Parties are ranked first by seats won. Ties are broken by total valid votes (higher is better). If still tied, alphabetical order of party names decides. The market resolves to whichever party finishes second after this ranking. Resolution is based solely on seats won by the named party. Resolution uses a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguous, it uses results from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
What the rules leave open
Whether SDA refers to a specific full party name or abbreviation, and which entity if multiple parties use similar names
closest the rules come: “This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.” — market rules ↗