Will Shas win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
The catch
Joint lists or merged parties count all votes, not just Shas's share.
“If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Shas wins between 6% and 7% of valid votes in the 2026 Israeli Knesset elections.
“This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before November 1, 2027
“If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: official election results published
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗Decided by: consensus of credible reporting, Central Elections Committee of Israel
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗
Does not count
- Shas wins 6-7% as part of a joint list but the market counts only Shas's individual shareour reading
- Shas merges with another party and the combined entity wins 6-7% but the market counts only pre-merger Shas votesour reading
- The percentage falls exactly on 6.0% or 7.0% and resolves to an adjacent bracket instead of this oneour reading
- Shas wins 6-7% but doesn't pass the electoral threshold and the market doesn't count those votesour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
Legislative elections are expected in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market resolves based on the percentage of the national vote won by the Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage is calculated as valid votes received by Shas divided by total valid votes cast. Votes count whether or not Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats. If Shas runs as part of a joint list with other parties, all votes for the joint list count. If Shas merges with another party before the election, all votes for the merged party or any joint list it runs on count. If the percentage falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the market resolves to the higher bracket. If results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket. The market resolves based on election results from a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves based solely on official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel.
What the rules leave open
Whether a value of exactly 6.0% counts as this bracket or the lower bracket.
closest the rules come: “If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” — market rules ↗Whether a value of exactly 7.0% counts as this bracket or the higher bracket.
closest the rules come: “If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” — market rules ↗