Will Shas win 7-8% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
The catch
Joint lists or merged parties count all votes, not just Shas's share.
“If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Shas wins between 7% and 8% of valid votes in the 2026 Israeli Knesset elections.
“This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before November 1, 2027
“If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: official election results published
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗Decided by: consensus of credible reporting, Central Elections Committee of Israel
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗
Does not count
- Shas wins 7-8% as part of a joint list but only contributed 5% of those votesour reading
- Shas wins 6.9% or 8.1% of the vote (just outside the bracket)our reading
- Shas wins 7-8% but fails to pass the electoral threshold and gets no seatsour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” — market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market resolves based on the percentage of the national vote won by the Shas party in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage is calculated as the number of valid votes received by Shas divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes count regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats. If Shas runs as part of a joint candidate list with other parties, all votes won by the joint list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party before the election, all votes won by the merged party or any joint list it runs on will be counted. If the vote percentage falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market resolves to the higher range bracket. If the results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market resolves to the lowest range bracket. This market resolves based on election results as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel.
What the rules leave open
Whether the election will actually be held on October 27, 2026, or if it could be postponed or held earlier.
closest the rules come: “Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.” — market rules ↗What happens if Shas does not contest the election at all.
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.” — market rules ↗What the 'lowest range bracket' means for resolution if results are not known by the deadline.
closest the rules come: “If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗