Sharpbook
Polymarket· world· open· settles 2026-11-30

Will Shas win 8-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 26¢

The catch

  • Joint lists or merged parties count all votes, not just Shas's share.
    “If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • Shas wins 8-9% of the valid vote in the 2026 Israeli Knesset elections.
    “This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.” — market rules ↗
  • Has to happen before November 1, 2027
    “If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: election results definitively known
    “If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗
  • Decided by: consensus of credible reporting, Central Elections Committee of Israel
    “This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗

Does not count

  • Invalid votes are not counted in the percentage calculation
    “The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.” — market rules ↗
  • Shas wins exactly 8-9% as part of a joint list but only contributed 7% of those votes themselvesour reading
  • Shas merges with another party and the combined entity wins 8-9%, but Shas's original supporters only represented 6%our reading
  • Shas wins 7.95% which rounds to 8% in media reports but the official count shows 7.95%our reading

Watch out

  • HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
    “If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” — market rules ↗
  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

Legislative elections are expected in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market resolves based on what percentage of the national vote Shas wins in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage is calculated as Shas's valid votes divided by total valid votes. Votes count even if Shas doesn't pass the threshold to win seats. If Shas runs on a joint list with other parties, all votes for that joint list count. If Shas merges with another party before the election, all votes for the merged party or any joint list it runs on count. If the percentage falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the market resolves to the higher bracket. If results aren't definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket. The market resolves based on election results from a consensus of credible reporting. If there's ambiguity, it resolves based solely on official results from the Central Elections Committee of Israel.

What the rules leave open

  • Whether the percentage is calculated before or after rounding, and to how many decimal places
    closest the rules come: “The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.” — market rules ↗
  • What constitutes 'definitively known' results for the October 31, 2027 deadline
    closest the rules come: “If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗
  • Whether preliminary results count or only final certified results
    closest the rules come: “This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗