Will Shas win 9% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
The catch
Joint lists or merged parties count all votes, not just Shas's share.
“If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Shas wins 9% or more of the valid votes in the 2026 Israeli Knesset elections.
“This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before November 1, 2027
“If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: election results definitively known
“If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗Decided by: consensus of credible reporting, Central Elections Committee of Israel
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Invalid votes are not counted in the calculation
“The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.” — market rules ↗- Shas wins exactly 9% as part of a joint list but only contributed 7% of those votes themselvesour reading
- Shas merges with another party and the merged entity wins 9%, but Shas supporters only contributed 6%our reading
- Shas wins 8.95% which rounds to 9% but the exact value is below 9%our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve based on the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage is calculated as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes are counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Shas runs as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party before the election, all votes won by the merged party, or any joint candidate list it runs through, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel.
What the rules leave open
What happens if the election is postponed to a date after October 27, 2026
closest the rules come: “Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.” — market rules ↗Whether the market resolves to YES or NO if the value falls exactly on 9%
closest the rules come: “If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” — market rules ↗