Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% before 2027?
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 22¢
The catch
The market title says "before 2027" but the rules only check September 2 through December 31, 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The 30-year Treasury yield must fall below 4.80% on any date from September 2 to December 31, 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗Has to happen during between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: The yield value as published in the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” — market rules ↗Decided by: Department of the treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 30 Yr column
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” — market rules ↗
Does not count
- The yield dips below 4.80% before September 2, 2026our reading
- The yield dips below 4.80% in January 2027 or laterour reading
- The yield reaches exactly 4.80% but does not go lowerour reading
- Intraday trading shows the yield below 4.80% but the official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates do notour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if the 30-year Treasury yield falls below 4.80% on any date from September 2, 2026 through December 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves to No. The market resolves as soon as the yield drops below the threshold, or once data for December 31, 2026 is available. If no qualifying value is published and December 31, 2026 data is not available by January 14, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is the Department of the Treasury, specifically the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates data for the 30 Yr column.
What the rules leave open
What happens if the Treasury Department stops publishing the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates or changes its methodology during the observation period?
closest the rules come: “If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".” — market rules ↗