Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 46¢
The catch
The window starts September 2, 2026, not immediately—earlier dips don't count.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The 30-year Treasury yield falls below 5.00% on any date from September 2 to December 31, 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗Has to happen during between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: Published daily Treasury 30-year yield rate
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” — market rules ↗Decided by: Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Yields below 5.00% before September 2, 2026 do not count
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗Yields below 5.00% after December 31, 2026 do not count
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗- The 30-year Treasury yield drops below 5.00% in August 2026 (before the window starts)our reading
- The 30-year Treasury yield drops below 5.00% in January 2027 (after the window ends)our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market pays Yes if the 30-year Treasury yield falls below 5.00% on any date from September 2, 2026 through December 31, 2026. Otherwise it pays No. The market settles as soon as the yield drops below 5.00%, or once data for December 31, 2026 is available. If no qualifying value is published and December 31, 2026 data is not available by January 14, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market pays No. The source is the Department of the Treasury's "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" data, specifically the "30 Yr" column.
What the rules leave open
Whether intraday lows count or only the published daily rate
closest the rules come: “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” — market rules ↗