Sharpbook
Polymarket· economy· open· settles 2026-12-31

Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 80¢

The catch

  • The window is September 2 to December 31, 2026, not all of 2026.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • The 30-year Treasury yield falls below 5.20% on any date from September 2 to December 31, 2026.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗
  • Has to happen during between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: Published daily Treasury 30-year yield value
    “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” — market rules ↗
  • Decided by: Department of the Treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 30 Yr column
    “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” — market rules ↗

Does not count

  • The yield dips below 5.20% in January through August 2026our reading
  • The yield dips below 5.20% in January 2027our reading
  • The yield reaches exactly 5.20% but does not go lowerour reading
  • Intraday yield drops below 5.20% but the published daily rate does notour reading

Watch out

  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves to Yes if the 30-year Treasury yield falls below 5.20% on any date from September 2, 2026 through December 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves to No. The market resolves as soon as the yield drops below 5.20%, or once data for December 31, 2026 is available. If no qualifying value is published and December 31, 2026 data is not available by January 14, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates data, specifically the 30 Yr column.

What the rules leave open

  • Whether 'lower than the listed value' means strictly below 5.20% or includes 5.20% exactly
    closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗