Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% in September?
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 41¢
The catch
The market starts September 3rd, not September 1st, excluding the first two days.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The 30-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds 5.39% on any date from September 3 to September 30, 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during September 3, 2026 to September 30, 2026
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: The value published in Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” · market rules ↗Decided by: Department of the treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 30 Yr column
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” · market rules ↗
Does not count
- The yield hits 5.39% on September 1st or 2nd, 2026our reading
- The yield hits 5.38% but never quite reaches 5.39%our reading
- The yield reaches 5.39% in October 2026our reading
- Intraday trading shows 5.39% but the published daily rate is lowerour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market pays Yes if the 30-year Treasury yield reaches or goes above 5.39% on any date from September 3, 2026 through September 30, 2026. Otherwise it pays No. The market settles as soon as the yield hits 5.39% or higher, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data for September 30, 2026 is not available by October 14, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market pays No. The source is the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, specifically the 30 Yr column.
What the rules leave open
Whether the yield must reach exactly 5.39% or if rounding to 5.39% from a lower value counts
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗