Sharpbook
Polymarket· economy· open· settles 2026-09-30

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.42% in September?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 28¢

The catch

  • Only dates from September 3-30 count, not the entire month of September.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • The 30-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds 5.42% on any date from September 3-30, 2026.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗
  • Has to happen during September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: The value published in the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates
    “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” · market rules ↗
  • Decided by: Department of the Treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 30 Yr column
    “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” · market rules ↗

Does not count

  • The yield hits 5.42% on September 1 or 2, 2026our reading
  • The yield hits 5.42% on October 1, 2026our reading
  • The yield hits 5.41% (just below the threshold)our reading
  • A different Treasury yield (10-year, 20-year) hits 5.42%our reading

Watch out

  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market pays Yes if the 30-year Treasury yield reaches or goes above 5.42% on any date from September 3, 2026 through September 30, 2026. Otherwise it pays No. The market settles as soon as the yield hits the target or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and September 30 data is not available by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, the market pays No. The source is the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, specifically the 30 Yr column.

What the rules leave open

  • Whether the yield must reach exactly 5.42% or if rounding to 5.42% from a lower value counts
    closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗
  • What happens if the Treasury Department changes the format or location of the data publication
    closest the rules come: “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” · market rules ↗