Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in September?
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 23¢
The catch
Only dates from September 3-30 count, not the entire month of September.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The 30-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds 5.45% on any date from September 3-30, 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Published in Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” · market rules ↗Decided by: Department of the Treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 30 Yr column
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” · market rules ↗
Does not count
- The yield hits 5.45% on September 1 or 2, 2026our reading
- The yield hits 5.45% on October 1, 2026 or laterour reading
- Intraday trading reaches 5.45% but the published daily rate does notour reading
- The yield reaches exactly 5.449% (rounds to 5.45% but doesn't meet the threshold)our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if the 30-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds 5.45% on any date from September 3 through September 30, 2026. Otherwise it resolves to No. The market resolves as soon as the yield reaches 5.45% or higher, or once data for September 30, 2026 is available. If no qualifying value is published and September 30, 2026 data is not available by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates data, specifically the 30 Yr column.
What the rules leave open
Whether 5.449% or similar values that might round to 5.45% would qualify as reaching 5.45%.
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗