Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 54¢
The catch
The market title says "before 2027" but the rules only count dates from September 3 through December 31, 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The 30-year Treasury yield must reach or exceed 5.70% on any date between September 3 and December 31, 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: When the yield reaches or exceeds 5.70% or data for December 31, 2026 is available
“This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Department of the treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 30 Yr column
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr"” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Dates before September 3, 2026 do not count
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗Dates after December 31, 2026 do not count
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗- The yield hits 5.70% in August 2026 (before September 3)our reading
- The yield hits 5.70% in January 2027 (after December 31, 2026)our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if the 30-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds the listed value on any date from September 3, 2026 through December 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves to No. The market resolves as soon as the yield reaches or exceeds the listed value, or once data for December 31, 2026 is available. If no qualifying value is published and December 31, 2026 data is not available by January 14, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is the Department of the Treasury, specifically the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates data for the 30 Yr column.
What the rules leave open
What does 'listed value' mean - is it 5.70% exactly or does it refer to something else in the title?
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗