Sharpbook
Polymarket· economy· open· settles 2026-09-30

Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.37% in September?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 33¢

The catch

  • The yield must go below 4.37%, not reach it exactly.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” — market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • The Treasury 5-year yield falls below 4.37% on any date from September 3 to September 30, 2026.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” — market rules ↗
  • Has to happen during September 3, 2026 to September 30, 2026
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” — market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: The date the Treasury publishes a 5-year yield below 4.37%
    “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” — market rules ↗
  • Decided by: Department of the treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 5 Yr column
    “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” — market rules ↗

Does not count

  • A yield exactly at 4.37% does not count (must be lower)
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” — market rules ↗
  • Dates before September 3, 2026 do not count
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” — market rules ↗
  • Dates after September 30, 2026 do not count
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” — market rules ↗
  • The yield reaches exactly 4.37% but does not go below itour reading

Watch out

  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market pays Yes if the Treasury 5-year yield falls below 4.37% on any date from September 3 to September 30, 2026. Otherwise it pays No. The market settles as soon as the yield goes below 4.37%, or once data for September 30, 2026 is available. If no qualifying value is published and September 30, 2026 data is not available by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, the market pays No. The source is the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, specifically the 5 Yr column.

What the rules leave open

  • Whether intraday yields count or only the published daily value
    closest the rules come: “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” — market rules ↗