Sharpbook
Polymarket· economy· open· settles 2026-09-30

Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% in September?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 21¢

The catch

  • The yield must go below 4.40%, not reach it exactly.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • The Treasury 5-year yield must fall below 4.40% on any date from September 3 to September 30, 2026.
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗
  • Has to happen during September 3, 2026 to September 30, 2026
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: Published daily Treasury 5-year yield data
    “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” · market rules ↗
  • Decided by: Department of the treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 5 Yr column
    “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” · market rules ↗

Does not count

  • Yields on September 1 or September 2, 2026 do not count
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗
  • A yield exactly at 4.40% does not count as YES (must be lower)
    “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.” · market rules ↗
  • The yield reaches exactly 4.40% but does not go below itour reading
  • The yield dips below 4.40% on September 1 or 2, 2026our reading

Watch out

  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves to Yes if the Treasury 5-year yield falls below 4.40% on any date from September 3, 2026 through September 30, 2026. Otherwise it resolves to No. The market resolves as soon as the yield goes below 4.40%, or once data for September 30, 2026 is available. If no qualifying value is published and September 30, 2026 data is not available by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates data, specifically the 5 Yr column.

What the rules leave open

  • Whether the yield must be below 4.40% at any point during a trading day or only in the published daily rate
    closest the rules come: “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” · market rules ↗
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% in September?: the rules explained · Sharpbook