Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 75¢
The catch
The yield must dip below 4.45% during a specific window: September 3 to December 31, 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Treasury 5-year yield must fall below 4.45% on any date between September 3 and December 31, 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Published daily Treasury 5 Yr yield value
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” · market rules ↗Decided by: Department of the treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 5 Yr column
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” · market rules ↗
Does not count
- The 5-year Treasury yield dips below 4.45% before September 3, 2026our reading
- The 5-year Treasury yield dips below 4.45% in 2027our reading
- The yield dips below 4.45% but the data is not published by the Department of Treasury by January 14, 2027our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if the Treasury 5-year yield falls below 4.45% on any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves to No. The market resolves as soon as the yield drops below 4.45%, or once data for December 31, 2026 is available. If no qualifying value is published and December 31, 2026 data is not available by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates data, specifically the 5 Yr column.
What the rules leave open
Whether intraday lows count or only the official daily published value in the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates table.
closest the rules come: “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” · market rules ↗