Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.70% before 2027?
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 71¢
The catch
The yield must hit 4.70% during a specific window (Sept 3 - Dec 31, 2026), not anytime before 2027.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The 5-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds 4.70% on any date between September 3 and December 31, 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗Has to happen during September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: The published daily value in the Treasury's 5 Yr column
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” — market rules ↗Decided by: Department of the treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 5 Yr column
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Yields reaching 4.70% before September 3, 2026 do not count
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗Yields reaching 4.70% after December 31, 2026 do not count
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗- The yield hits 4.70% in August 2026 (before the window starts)our reading
- The yield hits 4.70% in January 2027 (after the window ends)our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market pays Yes if the 5-year Treasury yield reaches or goes above 4.70% on any date from September 3, 2026 through December 31, 2026. Otherwise it pays No. The market settles as soon as the yield hits the target or once data for December 31, 2026 is available. If no qualifying value is published and December 31, 2026 data is not available by January 14, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market pays No. The source is the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, specifically the 5 Yr column.
What the rules leave open
Whether the yield must be exactly 4.70% or if any value at or above counts (though 'reaches or is higher than' suggests at or above)
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” — market rules ↗