Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 32¢
The catch
The market title says "before 2027" but the rules only count dates from September 3 to December 31, 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Treasury 5-year yield must reach or exceed 5.00% on any date between September 3 and December 31, 2026.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: The yield value as published in the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” · market rules ↗Decided by: Department of the treasury - Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, 5 Yr column
“The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” · market rules ↗
Does not count
- The 5-year Treasury yield hits 5.00% before September 3, 2026our reading
- The 5-year Treasury yield hits 5.00% in 2027our reading
- The 5-year Treasury yield hits 4.99% during the qualifying period but never reaches 5.00%our reading
- A different Treasury yield (e.g., 10-year) hits 5.00% during the periodour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or exceeds 5.00% on any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise it resolves to No. The market resolves as soon as the yield hits the target value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is the Department of the Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates data, specifically the 5 Yr column.
What the rules leave open
What happens if the Treasury Department changes the format or location of the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates data?
closest the rules come: “The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr"” · market rules ↗