Will The Democrats win 6-7% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
The catch
Votes for joint lists or merged parties count even if The Democrats isn't the main party.
“If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Democrats party wins between 6% and 7% of valid votes in the 2026 Israeli Knesset elections.
“This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.” — market rules ↗Decided at the event on October 27, 2026
“Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: official election results published
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗Decided by: consensus of credible reporting, Central Elections Committee of Israel
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Invalid votes are not counted in the percentage calculation
“The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.” — market rules ↗- The Democrats wins exactly 5.9% or 7.1% of the vote (outside the 6-7% range)our reading
- The Democrats wins 6.5% but the election is held on a different date than October 27, 2026our reading
- The Democrats wins 6.5% but results are not known by October 31, 2027 (resolves to lowest bracket instead)our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve based on the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage is calculated as the number of valid votes The Democrats receives divided by the total number of valid votes cast. Votes count whether or not The Democrats passes the threshold to win seats. If The Democrats runs as part of a joint list with other parties, all votes for that joint list count. If The Democrats merges with another party before the election, all votes for the merged party or any joint list it runs on count. If the percentage falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the market resolves to the higher range bracket. If the election results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket. The market resolves based on election results from a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves based solely on official results from the Central Elections Committee of Israel.
What the rules leave open
Whether votes for The Democrats count if the party dissolves entirely before the election
closest the rules come: “If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗Which direction the boundary rule applies (whether exactly 6.0% or 7.0% counts as this bracket or another)
closest the rules come: “If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” — market rules ↗What constitutes 'definitively known' results for the postponement clause
closest the rules come: “If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗