Will The Democrats win less than 6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
The catch
Votes from joint lists or merged parties count as The Democrats' votes.
“If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Democrats party wins less than 6% of valid votes in the 2026 Israeli Knesset elections.
“This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.” — market rules ↗Decided at the event on October 27, 2026
“Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: election results definitively known
“If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” — market rules ↗Decided by: consensus of credible reporting, Central Elections Committee of Israel
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” — market rules ↗
Does not count
- The Democrats wins 5.9% as a standalone party but joins a joint list that wins 8% totalour reading
- The Democrats merges with another party and the merged entity wins 7%our reading
- The Democrats wins 5.5% but fails to pass the electoral threshold and wins no seatsour reading
- Election is postponed to 2027 and The Democrats wins less than 6% in that electionour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve based on the percentage of the national vote won by The Democrats party in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage is calculated as the number of valid votes received by The Democrats divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes count even if The Democrats doesn't pass the electoral threshold and wins no seats. If The Democrats runs as part of a joint candidate list with other parties, all votes won by that joint list will be counted. If The Democrats merges with another party before the election, all votes won by the merged party, or any joint list it runs on, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel.
What the rules leave open
Whether votes count if The Democrats runs on a joint list but the list is branded under a different name entirely.
closest the rules come: “If The Democrats contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted.” — market rules ↗What happens if the election is held on a different date than October 27, 2026.
closest the rules come: “Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.” — market rules ↗Whether boundary resolution applies to the 6% threshold specifically or only to other bracket boundaries in a multi-bracket market.
closest the rules come: “If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” — market rules ↗