Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
The catch
Only the Democratic party nominee counts; independents with Democratic affiliation do not.
“Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Democratic party nominee wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during 2026
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: when all three sources call the race for the same candidate, or official certification
“This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, official certification
“The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Independent candidates with Democratic affiliation do not count as Democrats
“Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.” · market rules ↗Third-party candidates (Green, Libertarian) do not count as Democrats
“Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.” · market rules ↗- A Democrat-affiliated candidate runs as an independent and winsour reading
- Two of the three news sources call it for the Democrat but the third does not, and official certification is delayedour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on who wins the 2026 Florida governor election. A candidate represents a party if they are that party's nominee. Third-party candidates like Greens, Libertarians, or independents may be added later. Independent candidates do not count as Democrat or Republican, even if they have party ties. Candidate names may be listed for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name will be updated and the market resolves based on the replacement. The market resolves when Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three don't call it for the same candidate, it resolves based on official certification.
What the rules leave open
The exact date of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election is not specified
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.” · market rules ↗What happens if the Democratic nominee withdraws after election day but before the race is called or certified
closest the rules come: “In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.” · market rules ↗Which Florida authority provides the official certification used as fallback
closest the rules come: “If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗